The farmers market Eastern suburbs magic papaya

The other day I was at a farmers’ market and I like to have papaya red papaya particular.

I found a small one probably a little bit less than a kilo there was no price on display.

I simply said “I’ll buy this” now usually a kilo of papaya is about $4 a kilo so I assumed $4 or $5 as it was an eastern suburbs farmers market in Sydney.

The price came back “that will be $8”. I was stunned and my reaction was a little bit unusual according the person I was with.

Last year in January/February. I was frightened and I did something I really didn’t want to do…..
I forecast to my members who trade commodities and those who eat… like all of them… that food prices would start to climb and climb rapidly.

I forecast a commodities boom in prices which means living becomes more expensive and that’s why I did not like it.

Central banks all around the world have been hoping and dreaming of inflation to bail them out of the mess that they created by not making the hard decisions during the 2007 2011 global financial crisis.

This was on the basis of cycles that I have seen repeat.

In early February I got to meet a gentleman, Dr John Williams, who understood the mechanics of why these things would happen he was teaching some very powerful players in the Commodities space how to Navigate, Manage & profit in commodities for their companies.

He is Australia’s foremost authority and author in commodities and what works for them.
You may not have heard too much of the work he does but commodities with these are the stuff of life and inflation in these prices cause pain and sometimes revolution.

Commodities are

  • What we eat like wheat, corn, soybeans, pork, fish, butter, eggs, wheat, coffee
  • What makes up what we give in e.g. our houses . Plastics, glues, clay, steel,
  • What we drive with e.g. our cars or our teslas. These are made out of iron ore based steel, copper, lithium, silver, nickel, et cetera
  • What helps us have roads, buildings, planes, trains, automobiles, spaceships
  • what we wear cotton, wool, synthetics

So why are Papaya prices which were $4 a kilo now $8 a kilo?

Within 2 days I had read the headline “US Manufacturing, Services PMIs Surge To Record Highs…”

Sources: Bloomberg & April 21 2021

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“The upturn is broad-based: the service sector is growing at the fastest rate recorded in almost 12 years of survey history, and manufacturers reported one of the strongest expansions seen over the past seven years. The latter was all the more impressive, as factories continued to be throttled by unprecedented supply chain delays, a consequence of which was a further steep rise in prices.

“The worsening supply situation is a concern for the outlook, especially in relation to prices. Supply needs to improve to come into line with demand. But with record supply chain delays driving a rise in backlogs of uncompleted work of a magnitude not surpassed for over seven years, firms appear to be struggling to boost operating capacity in the near-term.”


the cost of buying a house or building a house in the US and Australia and many parts of the world has gone through the roof

In the US, particularly lumber is an extreme the important part of the process. It stunned me to see that most of those Uber Expensive Gorgeous LA Bel Air Beverly Hills mansion are simply made of plywood & timber this is due to the building code.

Bloomberg and report

“Building materials are moving from company to company in nontraditional flows,” said MaterialsXchange co-founder and CEO Mike Wisnefski. He added that prices have gotten so high that some homebuilders are being forced to cancel projects, leaving certain lumberyards with a little “excess inventory.”

“… has also translated to unprecedented events in the supply chain,”

The Stock Price of Ford was smashed just last night on its outlook for its production of cars.


Daddy, Do Used Car Prices always go up so much?

Car Prices Have Jumped

Used Car Prices Continue To Soar, Smashing Records Amid “Decimated Supply”


by Tyler Durden

Friday, Apr 23, 2021 – 07:20 PM

Used car prices in the U.S. continue to skyrocket as a result of both the country’s economic recovery and an ongoing supply crunch.

The Manheim U.S. Used Vehicle Value Index has continued to soar through the month of April, to a new record, as a result of the worsening of a semiconductor shortage, low lot inventories, and a continuing post-Covid “boom”.

The index was up 6.8% in the first 15 days of April, Bloomberg noted. The index is up an astounding 52% from the same time last year to 191.4.

One Bank Warns Soaring Food Prices Will Lead To Social Unrest


by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2021 – 09:00 PM

Yesterday we explained why with prices already soaring, global inflation was about to go into overdrive as the leading food price indicator that is the Bloomberg Agri spot index hit the highest level in six years.

In a nutshell, this is a problem since food is a large component of CPI baskets in Asia, and “this large inflationary impulse in the region that houses more than half the world’s population should result in higher wage costs in the factory base of the world. As CPI and PPI rise in Asia, it will feed through globally in the months ahead.”

By Michael Every of Rabobank says…

“But not during Covid, and not today: actual supply-chain experts are saying they have never seen anything like what is currently happening. There is a total, global log-jam; goods cannot be shipped in some cases; and supply-side inflation on a scale we have not seen for a long, long time looks imminent. And that is on top of weather-related disruption edging us closer to the Biblical agri-commodity price increase scenario we discussed back here. It also sits alongside geopolitical problems, with Saudi Arabia claiming an attempt was made to ram a ship filled with explosives into its Yanbu oil port, the latest tit-for-tat episode in that region.”


So given all these did I buy the Papaya? You Betcha I love them and Want to

John Williams is the expert in this Supply Chain Area. If you are in commodities or trading them or looking for a career in a Commodities Industry this course will help you no question. A brochure is available on request from John.

31st annual Commodity Course on Markets, Pricing, Hedging and Supply Chains in Melbourne.

This five-day intensive training program from Monday 7th to Friday 11th June 2021 is designed for all participants in the commodity industry. It is suited for people who need to improve their skills and knowledge of commodity markets, commercial trade markets, pricing, forward markets, futures-options markets, hedging, supply chains, and risk management.

This course is recommended for those making purchasing, hedging and selling decisions. Participants include traders, producers, merchants, end-users, bankers, accountants and advisors.

The program progresses in sequence from an introductory to an expert level, and focuses on analyses, management, strategy, and tactical decision making.

A wide range of guest speakers will complement the topic presentations. Adest Trading is a partner in the Course.

The course facilitator is Dr John Williams, author of

Agricultural Supply Chains and the Challenge of Price Risk (2014),


Agricultural Price Risk Management – The Principles of Commodity Trading (1999).


For Course details – Visit


For Course brochure – Go to


Contact Dr John Williams:

phone +61 428 260549



Reminder that early-bird discounts end this Friday 30th April for the 31st annual Commodity Course on Markets, Pricing, Hedging and Supply Chains in Melbourne.

So given all these did I buy the Red Papaya? Yep I love them too much

If you can’t see it this can be seen online click here